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71.
地震滑坡危险性概念和基于力学模型的评估方法探讨 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在我国大陆地区运用基于力学模型的Newmark位移分析方法开展地震滑坡危险性定量评估,尚处在起步阶段.为了进一步明确地震滑坡危险性概念和改进推广基于力学模型的评估方法,首先阐明了狭义的地震滑坡危险性预测评估与震后反演评估的关系; 同时为了应对地震应急、震后重建及潜在地震条件下的不同评估需求,初步提出了广义的地震滑坡危险性评估框架.随后申述了基于Newmark位移分析的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的理论基础、方法分类及最新进展,并以汶川地震滑坡危险性快速评估为例,剖析了目前影响评估有效性的不确定性及空间数据质量等问题,指出了基于力学模型的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的改进方向.建议开展潜在地震及其诱发滑坡危险性的耦合评估,建立适用于我国大陆地区地震滑坡位移分析的经验模型,以便为国家层面的地震滑坡危险性区划服务. 相似文献
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Although there has been significant progress in the seismic imaging of mantle heterogeneity,the outstanding issue that remains to be resolved is the unknown distribution of mantle temperature anomalies in the distant geological past that give rise to the present-day anomalies inferred by global tomography models.To address this question,we present 3-D convection models in compressible and self-gravitating mantle initialised by different hypothetical temperature patterns.A notable feature of our forward convection modelling is the use of self-consistent coupling of the motion of surface tectonic plates to the underlying mantle flow,without imposing prescribed surface velocities(i.e.,plate-like boundary condition).As an approximation for the surface mechanical conditions before plate tectonics began to operate we employ the no-slip(rigid) boundary condition.A rigid boundary condition demonstrates that the initial thermally-dominated structure is preserved,and its geographical location is fixed during the evolution of mantle flow.Considering the impact of different assumed surface boundary conditions(rigid and plate-like) on the evolution of thermal heterogeneity in the mantle we suggest that the intrinsic buoyancy of seven superplumes is most-likely resolved in the tomographic images of present-day mantle thermal structure.Our convection simulations with a plate-like boundary condition reveal that the evolution of an initial cold anomaly beneath the Java-Indonesian trench system yields a long-term,stable pattern of thermal heterogeneity in the lowermost mantle that resembles the presentday Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces(LLSVPs),especially below the Pacific.The evolution of subduction zones may be,however,influenced by the mantle-wide flow driven by deeply-rooted and longlived superplumes since Archean times.These convection models also detect the intrinsic buoyancy of the Perm Anomaly that has been identified as a unique slow feature distinct from the two principal LLSVPs.We find there is no need for dense chemical ’piles’ in the lower mantle to generate a stable distribution of temperature anomalies that are correlated to the LLSVPs and the Perm Anomaly.Our tomography-based convection simulations also demonstrate that intraplate volcanism in the south-east Pacific may be interpreted in terms of shallow small-scale convection triggered by a superplume beneath the East Pacific Rise. 相似文献
73.
In this paper, a fully coupled numerical model is presented for the finite element analysis of the deforming porous medium interacting with the flow of two immiscible compressible wetting and non-wetting pore fluids. The governing equations involving coupled fluid flow and deformation processes in unsaturated soils are derived within the framework of the generalized Biot theory. The displacements of the solid phase, the pressure of the wetting phase and the capillary pressure are taken as the primary unknowns of the present formulation. The other variables are incorporated into the model using the experimentally determined functions that define the relationship between the hydraulic properties of the porous medium, i.e. saturation, relative permeability and capillary pressure. It is worth mentioning that the imposition of various boundary conditions is feasible notwithstanding the choice of the primary variables. The modified Pastor–Zienkiewicz generalized constitutive model is introduced into the mathematical formulation to simulate the mechanical behavior of the unsaturated soil. The accuracy of the proposed mathematical model for analyzing coupled fluid flows in porous media is verified by the resolution of several numerical examples for which previous solutions are known. Finally, the performance of the computational algorithm in modeling of large-scale porous media problems including the large elasto-plastic deformations is demonstrated through the fully coupled analysis of the failure of two earth and rockfill dams. Furthermore, the three-phase model is compared to its simplified one which simulates the unsaturated porous medium as a two-phase one with static air phase. The paper illustrates the shortcomings of the commonly used simplified approach in the context of seismic analysis of two earth and rockfill dams. It is shown that accounting the pore air as an independent phase significantly influences the unsaturated soil behavior. 相似文献
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裂缝问题是火山岩复杂岩性油气藏勘探开发中必须考虑的重要因素之一.火山岩储层裂缝预测的准确性直接影响着油气的产能、钻井工艺和增产改造措施等.本文主要根据等效HTI介质(扩容各向异性介质)的特性,立足地下介质各向异性理论,利用三维地震叠前P波在HTI介质中的属性分布特征来检测裂缝的发育情况.利用三维地震叠前P波裂缝检测技术在松辽盆地北部徐家围子断陷深层营城组火山岩中尝试开展了储层裂缝发育预测研究.通过研究建立了火山岩裂缝地震叠前预测方法,并对营城组火山岩裂缝发育情况进行预测,结果表明裂缝主要分布在工区中部构造高部位,发育方向以北北西向为主.最后利用测井资料和钻井产能资料等进行效果分析,证实该技术对于认识火山岩储层裂缝发育具有实际应用价值,说明应用地震资料开展储层裂缝预测具有横向分辨率高、实现井间分布描述和宏观空间分布规律清楚等特点. 相似文献
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利用地震数据反演海水的温盐分布是地震海洋学研究的一个重要方向.本文分析了采集于伊比利亚半岛西南缘海域的GOLR12低频地震数据和同步观测的XBT(eXpendable BathyThermograph)、CTD(Conductivity-Temperature-Depth)资料,将叠后约束波阻抗反演方法应用到海水温度、盐度剖面的计算当中,计算结果显示这种反演方法可以提供水平分辨率为6.25 m的温度和盐度资料,温度的精度约为0.16 ℃,可以为物理海洋学研究提供高横向分辨率的基础数据. 相似文献
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